Races · house · 2026 · Nevada
house · open seat
Kathy Durham vs Mark Amodei
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean R · model 90% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+16.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+32.1 (10th pctile) to tied (90th pctile), giving R a 90% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +16.0
80% CI: R +32.1 → D +0.1 · win prob 10%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +18.4
80% CI R +23.5 → R +0.4
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +7.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 21¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?” | 21¢ | 76¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Kathy Durham0 · 0%
Mark Amodei2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMark Amodei2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
DKathy Durham0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-05Mark Amodei
Receipts
$525.4K
Disburse
$448.8K
Cash on hand
$437.6K
Debts
$9.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Kathy Durham
Receipts
$51.5K
Disburse
$41.1K
Cash on hand
$10.4K
Debts
$22.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$596.0K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$596.0K · 100%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.08
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.08
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 8%
Neutral 92%
8% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets8%
Neutral92%
R-leaning outlets0%
8% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Kelly Bullis: Nevada Business Magazine Power Poll 2026
T
Is David Flippo's primary win the death blow for Old Nevada politics?
W
Nevada primary election results 2026 live updates
2
Results still coming after Nevada’s primary election; some key races called
8
Nevada primary election 2026 live results: Governor, Congress and local races
T
Candidates notch wins in Nevada U.S. House primaries
T
Live updates: Republicans jockey for Amodei’s seat in Nevada House primary
R
All 5 of Trump's endorsed Nevada candidates appear headed to victory
P
GOP primary for U.S. House seat and Democratic governors race among Nevada's key contests
N
Voter guide for Nevada's 2026 Primary Election
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-05
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks