Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey
house · open seat
Nellie Pou vs Rosie Pino
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 74% D · market gap 17pp
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 91%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.9 (10th pctile) to D+24.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 74% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 74%, market says 91% — 17pp gap.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.2
80% CI: R +7.9 → D +24.3 · win prob 74%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.1
80% CI D +2.7 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.7
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 33 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet28
5
Endorsements tracked
Nellie Pou28 · 85%
Rosie Pino5 · 15%
Total33
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DNellie Pou28 endorsers
Most notable · Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present) and former NJ-11 (2019–2025)
Organizations21
Organizations · 21
- 32BJ SEIU
- AFL-CIO
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Communications Workers of America · District 1
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Democrats for Education Reform
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Gun Sense Voter
- Hudson County · Democratic Committee
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Kearny · Republican Committee
- Latino Victory
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Passaic County · Democratic Committee
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- SEIU · New Jersey State Council
Elected officials4
Federal 1State 2Local 1
Elected officials · 4
- Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present) and former NJ-11 (2019–2025)
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz · FL-25 (2005–present)
- Alixon Collazos-Gill · state assemblymember from the 27th district (2024–present)
- Essex County · Essex County commissioner
Other3
Other · 3
- Bergen County · Republican Organization
- Clifton · ino, Clifton city councilor
- NFL · fany Burress, attorney and wife of former NFL player Plaxico Burress
RRosie Pino5 endorsers
Most notable · Bergen County · Republican Organization
Celebrity3
Celebrity · 3
- Bergen County · Republican Organization
- Kearny · Republican Committee
- Republican · otta, former investment banker and Republican candidate for NJ-05 in 2020
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- New Jersey · Right to Life PAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-25Nellie PouH4NJ09194 ↗
Receipts
$2.3M
Disburse
$970.1K
Cash on hand
$1.5M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Rosie Pino
Receipts
$389.5K
Disburse
$355.8K
Cash on hand
$33.6K
Debts
$131.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$109.34
D side
$109.34 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $109.34 | 100% | for Nellie Pou |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely DInside Elections
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-25
Endorsements33 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks