Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey
house · open seat
New Jersey house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+15) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+27.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+11.2 (10th pctile) to D+43.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 77/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
77
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement4
0.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution4 / 100
Measured0.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +27.3
80% CI: D +11.2 → D +43.4 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +28.1
80% CI D +26.2 → D +41.8
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.3
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NJ-08 House seat?” | 94¢ | 6¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 31 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet31
Endorsements tracked
Rob Menendez31 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total31
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DRob Menendez31 endorsers
Most notable · Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present)
Organizations18
Organizations · 18
- 32BJ SEIU
- AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- American Federation of Government Employees
- BOLD PAC
- Communications Workers of America · District 1
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Eastern Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters
- Gun Sense Voter
- Hotel and Gaming Trades Council
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Latino Victory Fund
- Leading the Future
- LiUNA
- Make the Road Action NJ
- National Education Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- SEIU · New Jersey State Council
Elected officials13
Federal 4State 3Local 3
Elected officials · 13
- Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present)
- Brian Stack · state senator from the 33rd district (2008–present) and mayor of Union City (2000–present)
- Bonnie Watson Coleman · NJ-12 (2015–present)
- LaMonica McIver · NJ-10 (2024–present)
- Linda Sánchez · CA-38 (2003–present)
- Albio Sires · mayor of West New York (1995–2006, 2023–present)
- Andy Kim · New Jersey (2024–present)
- Emily Jabbour · mayor of Hoboken (2026–present)
- Essex County · Democratic Committee
- Hudson County · Democratic Organization
- Larry Wainstein · state assemblymember from the 33rd district (2025–present)
- Ras Baraka · mayor of Newark (2014–present)
- Union County · Democratic Committee
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-20Rob MenendezH2NJ08232 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$748.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$684.4K
D side
$684.4K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
THINK BIG
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THINK BIG other · boosts D
| D | $638.3K | 93% | for Rob Menendez |
| Protect Progress other · boosts D
| D | $34.9K | 5% | for Rob Menendez |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee other · boosts D
| D | $11.3K | 2% | for Rob Menendez |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Rob Menendez |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-20
Endorsements38 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks