Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey
house · open seat
Rebecca Bennett vs Tom Kean Jr.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 58% D · market gap 22pp
Polling average rates this race Lean D (D+4.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+13.6 (10th pctile) to D+18.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 58% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.9% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 62/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (32.2pp); models disagree by 7.4pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
⚠ Model and market disagree sharply. Model says D wins at 58%, market says 80% — 22pp gap. Either side could be wrong — worth a closer look.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-large
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
62
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (32.2pp).
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement37
7.4pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution37 / 100
Measured7.4pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion5
0.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution5 / 100
Measured0.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity75
2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution75 / 100
Measured2 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.5
80% CI: R +13.6 → D +18.6 · win prob 58%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +3.9
80% CI R +11.4 → R +0.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +3.5
80% CI R +0.1 → D +7.1
CV MAE 2.78
consensusMarket-implied
D +7.4
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 79¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 32 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 79% · polls 47%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through May 26, 2026 · latest Z to A Research
Rebecca Bennett
VoteHub47.0%
VoteHub
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg47.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
Tom Kean Jr.
VoteHub43.0%
VoteHub
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg43.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through May 26, 2026): Rebecca Bennett 47.0%, Tom Kean Jr. 43.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | Z to A ResearchFor · New Jersey Globe | 430 · LV | D-LEAN | — | — | 47 · 43 |
Endorsements · 101 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet26
75
Endorsements tracked
Rebecca Bennett26 · 26%
Tom Kean Jr.75 · 74%
Total101
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTom Kean Jr.75 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Other41
Other · 41
- Ami Bera · CA-06 (2013–present)
- Chellie Pingree · ME-01 (2009–present)
- Dave Min · CA-47 (2025–present)
- Eric Sorensen · IL-17 (2023–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-06 (2019–present)
- Judy Chu · CA-28 (2009–present)
- Kim Schrier · WA-08 (2019–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Seth Moulton · MA-06 (2015–present)
- Sharice Davids · KS-03 (2019–present)
- Suhas Subramanyam · VA-10 (2025–present)
- 314 Action
- AAPI Victory Fund
- American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists
- American College of Physicians
- Anthony Verrelli · state assemblymember from the 15th district (2018–present)
- College Democrats · of New Jersey
- Earl Pomeroy · former ND-AL (1993–2011)
- Emgage · Action
- Indivisible · le chapters
- James J. Kennedy · state assemblymember from the 22nd district (2016–present)
- Latino Victory Fund
- Linda S. Carter · state assemblymember from the 22nd district (2018–present)
- Make the Road Action NJ
- Marisa Sweeney · state assemblymember from the 25th district
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
- Mitchelle Drulis · state assemblymember from the 16th district (2024–present)
- Peace Action
- Rush Holt Jr. · former NJ-12 (1999–2015)
- SEIU 32BJ
- Serve America
- Small Business Administration · staff for the Small Business Administration
- Somerset County · rset County commissioner
- Summit · artan, former Summit common councilmember (2019–2024) and candidate for this district in 2024
- U.S. Department of Agriculture · change advisor at the U.S. Department of Agriculture
- U.S. Surgeon General · nior advisor to the U.S. Surgeon General
- United States Navy · ealthcare executive and former United States Navy aviator
- Vote Mama
- VoteVets
Organizations20
Organizations · 20
- Andrew Yang · chair of the Forward Party (2022–present) and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- Forward Party · former chair of the New Jersey Forward Party, and candidate for the 8th district in 2022
- ASPIRE PAC
- American Federation of Government Employees · Local 1012
- Americans for Tax Reform
- Bharat Ramamurti · former deputy director of the National Economic Council (2021–2023)
- Communications Workers of America · District 1
- Hunterdon County · Republican Organization
- J Street PAC
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Log Cabin Republicans
- Machinists · State Council of Machinists
- Morris County · Democratic Committee
- National Republican Congressional Committee
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Sussex County · Democratic Committee
- UnidosUS · Action Fund
- Union County · Democratic Committee
- Warren County · Democratic Committee
- Westfield · Democratic Committee
Elected officials13
Federal 9State 2Local 2
Elected officials · 13
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Tom Malinowski · former chair of the Hunterdon County Democratic Party (2024–2025) and former U.S. representative (2019–2023) ( ran in the 11th district )
- Chris Christie · former governor of New Jersey (2010–2018)
- Joseph Cryan · state senator from the 20th district (2018–present)
- Maura Sullivan · former assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs (2015)
- Stephen Sweeney · former president of the New Jersey Senate (2010–2022) from the 3rd district (2002–2022)
- Don Graves · former deputy secretary of commerce (2021–2025)
- Jordan Glatt · former mayor of Summit (2003–2011)
- Nicholas Scutari · president of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 22nd district (2004–present)
- Patrick Murphy · former United States Under Secretary of the Army (2016–2017)
- Ras Baraka · mayor of Newark (2014–present)
- Tom Perez · former secretary of labor (2013–2017)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Richie Adubato · professor and daughter of former basketball coach Richie Adubato
DRebecca Bennett26 endorsers
Most notable · Joseph Cryan · state senator from the 20th district (2018–present)
Elected officials19
Federal 8State 5Local 2
Elected officials · 19
- Joseph Cryan · state senator from the 20th district (2018–present)
- Maura Sullivan · former assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs (2015)
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-06 (2019–present)
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Seth Moulton · MA-06 (2015–present)
- Anthony Verrelli · state assemblymember from the 15th district (2018–present)
- Hunterdon County · Democratic Committee
- James J. Kennedy · state assemblymember from the 22nd district (2016–present)
- Jordan Glatt · former mayor of Summit (2003–2011)
- Linda S. Carter · state assemblymember from the 22nd district (2018–present)
- Max Rose · former NY-11 (2019–2021)
- Mitchelle Drulis · state assemblymember from the 16th district (2024–present)
- Morris County · Democratic Committee
- Nicholas Scutari · president of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 22nd district (2004–present)
- Patrick Murphy · former United States Under Secretary of the Army (2016–2017)
- Somerset County · rset County commissioner and former candidate for this district
- Union County · Democratic Committee
- Westfield · Democratic Committee
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- College Democrats · of New Jersey
- Communications Workers of America · District 1
- Gun Sense Voter
- J Street PAC
- Serve America
- Vote Mama
- VoteVets
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-08Rebecca BennettH6NJ07201 ↗
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$764.1K
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Tom Kean Jr.H0NJ07261 ↗
Receipts
$4.5M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$3.4M
Debts
$39.4K
Cumulative receipts · 6 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.2M
D side
$1.6M · 70%
R side
$660.7K · 30%
Top spender
VoteVets
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteVets super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0M | 46% | for Rebecca Bennett |
| REAL CHANGE PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $660.7K | 30% | against Rebecca Bennett |
| YOUR COMMUNITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $289.0K | 13% | against Tom Kean Jr. |
| Article One PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $253.7K | 11% | for Rebecca Bennett |
| ACTIVATE AMERICA super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.5K | 0% | against Tom Kean Jr. |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Tilt D1
Tilt D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
TossupInside Elections
Tilt DSabato's Crystal Ball
TossupSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
72 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles72
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.15
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.08 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.15
Week-over-weekshift −0.08 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 22%
Neutral 71%
R 7%
29% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets22%
Neutral71%
R-leaning outlets7%
29% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
New Jersey Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
New Jersey Eighth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
W
Opponents Had A “Field Day” On New Jersey Senator Tom Kean, Jr.
N
Back in Congress, Tom Kean Jr. Faces a New Challenge: Staying There
F
NJ Rep. Tom Kean Jr. returns to Congress following treatment for depression
P
WATCH: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. says he was recovering from depression during months-long absence from Congress
R
Bennett wins Democratic nod in New Jersey primary to face US House Republican Kean
G
NJ Rep. Tom Kean Jr. says depression was cause of monthslong unexplained absence
F
NJ Rep. Tom Kean Jr. returns to Congress following treatment for depression
O
Tom Kean Jr. Scheduled to Return
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-08
Endorsements130 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks