Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey

house · open seat

Frank Pallone vs Hillary Herzig

← New Jersey house New Jersey house →

Safe DD +17.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
92% Pallone (D)
8% Herzig (R)
Win probability
Frank Pallone92% (D)
Hillary Herzig8% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +17.8
80% CID+1.7 → D+33.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +17.8 · 80% CI D+1.7 → D+33.9 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 92% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.7 (10th pctile) to D+33.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +17.8

80% CI: D +1.7 → D +33.9 · win prob 92%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +12.6

80% CI D +7.8 → D +20.9

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +15.4

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

80¢85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-06 House seat?”	94¢	3¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 15 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

12Pallone · 80%
Herzig · 20%3
Endorsements tracked
Frank Pallone12 · 80%
Hillary Herzig3 · 20%
Total15
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DFrank Pallone12 endorsers

Most notable · Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present)

Organizations10

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

Other1

RHillary Herzig3 endorsers

Most notable · New Jersey · Right to Life PAC

Other2

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-09

Frank PalloneH8NJ03073 ↗

Receipts

$2.0M

Disburse

$1.8M

Cash on hand

$3.3M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Hillary HerzigOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$5.0K

Disburse

$3.3K

Cash on hand

$1.7K

Debts

$2.5K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$10

D side

$10 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…

For / against split

For Pallone $10

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	100%	for Frank Pallone

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.