Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey
house · open seat
Josh Gottheimer vs Sandy Gajapathy
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 84% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 90%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.5 (10th pctile) to D+28.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 84% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.7
80% CI: R +3.5 → D +28.7 · win prob 84%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.1
80% CI D +2.7 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.0
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 15 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet15
Endorsements tracked
Josh Gottheimer15 · 100%
Sandy Gajapathy0 · 0%
Total15
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJosh Gottheimer15 endorsers
Most notable · Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present)
Organizations11
Organizations · 11
- AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Democrats for Education Reform
- Gun Sense Voter
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Passaic County · Democratic Committee
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- SEIU · New Jersey State Council
Elected officials2
Federal 0State 1Local 1
Elected officials · 2
- Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present)
- Tuxedo Park, New York · former mayor of Tuxedo Park, New York and nominee for this district in 2024
Other2
Other · 2
- Adam Rueda (Humane Sustainable Future), DJ [ 21 ]
- Bergen County · Republican Organization
RSandy Gajapathy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Josh Gottheimer
Receipts
$3.5M
Disburse
$12.6M
Cash on hand
$11.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Sandy Gajapathy
Receipts
$50.0K
Disburse
$50.0K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks