Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey
house · open seat
New Jersey house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+43.2 (10th pctile) to R+11.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.1
80% CI: R +43.2 → R +11.0 · win prob 2%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.1
80% CI R +38.9 → R +28.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +13.6
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 8¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-04 House seat?” | 8¢ | 91¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet6
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Chris Smith6 · 100%
Total6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RChris Smith6 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations5
Organizations · 5
- AFL-CIO
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Americans for Tax Reform
- Monmouth County · Republican Organization
- New Jersey · Right to Life PAC
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
RRachel Peace4 endorsers
Most notable · Rutgers University · rs University professor and former candidate for this district
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Gun Sense Voter
- Monmouth County · Democratic Committee
- Ocean County · Democratic Committee
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Rutgers University · rs University professor and former candidate for this district
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Chris Smith
Receipts
$526.0K
Disburse
$443.5K
Cash on hand
$446.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Rachel Peace
Receipts
$23.6K
Disburse
$17.7K
Cash on hand
$5.9K
Debts
$6.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks