Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey

house · open seat

Herb Conaway vs Michael McGuire

← New Jersey house New Jersey house →

Safe DD +16.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
91% Conaway (D)
9% McGuire (R)
Win probability
Herb Conaway91% (D)
Michael McGuire9% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +16.8
80% CID+0.7 → D+32.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +16.8 · 80% CI D+0.7 → D+32.8 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 93¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 91% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.7 (10th pctile) to D+32.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 91% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +16.8

80% CI: D +0.7 → D +32.8 · win prob 91%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +12.6

80% CI D +7.8 → D +20.9

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.0

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NJ-03 House seat?”	93¢	7¢	+2¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 16 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

12Conaway · 75%
McGuire · 25%4
Endorsements tracked
Herb Conaway12 · 75%
Michael McGuire4 · 25%
Total16
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DHerb Conaway12 endorsers

Most notable · Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present)

Organizations11

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

RMichael McGuire4 endorsers

Most notable · Barry Goldwater Jr. · former CA-20 (1975–1983) and son of Barry Goldwater

Elected officials3

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Herb ConawayOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$815.4K

Disburse

$468.1K

Cash on hand

$384.7K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Michael McGuireOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$70.5K

Disburse

$66.7K

Cash on hand

$3.8K

Debts

$82.4K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.