Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey
house · open seat
New Jersey house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+9.3 (10th pctile) to D+41.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 76/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
76
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement3
0.6pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution3 / 100
Measured0.6pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +25.4
80% CI: D +9.3 → D +41.5 · win prob 98%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +26.0
80% CI D +20.3 → D +38.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-12 House seat?” | 94¢ | 6¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 43 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet43
Endorsements tracked
Adam Hamawy43 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total43
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAdam Hamawy43 endorsers
Most notable · Keith Ellison · attorney general of Minnesota (2019–present)
Organizations22
Organizations · 22
- 314 Action
- AFL-CIO
- American Priorities
- Christopher Street Project
- Congressional Progressive Caucus
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Emgage · Action
- Gun Sense Voter
- Hindus for Human Rights · Action
- Jewish Voice for Peace · Action
- Justice Democrats
- National Nurses United
- New American Leaders · Action Fund
- Our Revolution
- PAL PAC
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Progressive Victory
- Rutgers · AAUP – AFT
- Sunrise Movement
- Track AIPAC
- US Campaign for Palestinian Rights · Action
Elected officials18
Federal 15State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 18
- Keith Ellison · attorney general of Minnesota (2019–present)
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
- Chuy Garcia · IL-04 (2019–present)
- Delia Ramirez · IL-03 (2023–present)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Ilhan Omar · MN-05 (2019–present)
- Jill Tokuda · HI-02 (2023–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Summer Lee · PA-12 (2023–present)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Chris Rabb · Pennsylvania state representative from the 200th district (2017–present)
- Jamaal Bowman · former NY-16 (2021–2025)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025-present)
- Rashida Tlaib · MI-12 (2019-present)
- Sadaf Jaffer · former state assemblymember from the 16th district (2022–2024)
- Tammy Duckworth · Illinois (2017–present)
Celebrity3
Celebrity · 3
- Hasan Piker · political commentator
- Josh Paul · former director of congressional and public affairs for the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs
- Linda Sarsour · political activist
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-15Adam HamawyH6NJ12417 ↗
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$718.2K
Cash on hand
$310.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.9M
D side
$1.9M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
AMERICAN PRIORITIES…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.6M | 82% | for Adam Hamawy |
| Justice Democrats PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $191.3K | 10% | for Adam Hamawy |
| Medicare For All other · boosts D
| D | $150.0K | 8% | for Adam Hamawy |
| Unity & Justice Fund other · boosts D
| D | $5.2K | 0% | for Adam Hamawy |
| Christopher Street Project PAC other · boosts D
| D | $5.0K | 0% | for Adam Hamawy |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
4 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
4 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles4
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.75
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift 0.00 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.75
Week-over-weekshift 0.00 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 75%
Neutral 25%
75% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets75%
Neutral25%
R-leaning outlets0%
75% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
New Jersey Eighth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
New Jersey 12th Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
New Jersey 11th Congressional District Primary Election Results
O
New Jersey Democrats pick Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett to face absent GOP congressman
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-15
Endorsements100 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage4 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks