Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey
house · open seat
Analilia Mejia vs Joe Hathaway
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 91% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.1 (10th pctile) to D+33.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 91% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.2
80% CI: D +1.1 → D +33.3 · win prob 91%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +12.6
80% CI D +7.8 → D +20.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-11 House seat?” | 93¢ | 7¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 38 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet26
12
Endorsements tracked
Analilia Mejia26 · 68%
Joe Hathaway12 · 32%
Total38
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAnalilia Mejia26 endorsers
Most notable · LeRoy J. Jones Jr. · chair of the New Jersey Democratic Party (2021–present)
Elected officials14
Federal 10State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 14
- LeRoy J. Jones Jr. · chair of the New Jersey Democratic Party (2021–present)
- Tom Malinowski · former chair of the Hunterdon County Democratic Party (2024–2025), former NJ-07 (2019–2023), and candidate for this district in the April special election
- Bonnie Watson Coleman · NJ-12 (2015–present)
- Donald Norcross · NJ-01 (2014–present)
- Frank Pallone · NJ-06 (1988–present)
- Herb Conaway · NJ-03 (2025–present)
- LaMonica McIver · NJ-10 (2024–present)
- Nellie Pou · NJ-09 (2025–present)
- Rob Menendez · NJ-08 (2023–present)
- Andy Kim · New Jersey (2024–present)
- Cory Booker · New Jersey (2013–present)
- Essex County · Democratic Committee
- Morris County · Democratic Committee
- Passaic County · Democratic Committee
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- AFL-CIO
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Emgage · Action
- Giffords
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers
- J Street
- J Street PAC
- New Jersey Education Association
- Progressive Democrats of America
- SEIU · New Jersey State Council
- Track AIPAC
RJoe Hathaway12 endorsers
Most notable · Anthony Bucco · minority leader of the New Jersey Senate (2023–present) from the 25th district (2019–present)
Other7
Other · 7
- Thomas Kean Jr. · NJ-07 (2023–present)
- Al Barlas · state assemblymember from the 40th district (2024–present)
- Aura Dunn · state assemblymember from the 25th district (2019–present)
- Brian Bergen · state assemblymember from the 26th district (2020–present)
- Christopher DePhillips · state assemblymember from the 40th district (2018–present)
- Dawn Fantasia · state assemblymember from the 24th district (2024–present)
- Mike Inganamort · state assemblymember from the 24th district (2024–present)
Elected officials4
Federal 0State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Anthony Bucco · minority leader of the New Jersey Senate (2023–present) from the 25th district (2019–present)
- Joseph Pennacchio · minority whip of the New Jersey Senate (2017–present) from the 26th district (2008–present)
- Kristin Corrado · state senator from the 40th district (2017–present)
- Jim Gannon · sheriff of Morris County (2017–present) and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2025
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Americans for Tax Reform
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-02Analilia MejiaH6NJ11286 ↗
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$134.4K
Debts
$49.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Joe Hathaway
Receipts
$624.2K
Disburse
$618.9K
Cash on hand
$5.3K
Debts
$14.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$697.4K
D side
$514.4K · 74%
R side
$183.0K · 26%
Top spender
Working Families Pa…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working Families Party PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $276.2K | 40% | for Analilia Mejia |
| THE AMERICAN CENTERPOINT PAC INC. other · boosts R
| R | $183.0K | 26% | for Joe Hathaway |
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $50.0K | 7% | for Analilia Mejia |
| Medicare For All pac · boosts D
| D | $50.0K | 7% | for Analilia Mejia |
| Garden State Forward other · boosts D
| D | $40.0K | 6% | for Analilia Mejia |
| CITIZENS AGAINST AIPAC CORRUPTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $35.0K | 5% | for Analilia Mejia |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
13 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
13 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles13
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.54
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.54
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 54%
Neutral 46%
54% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets54%
Neutral46%
R-leaning outlets0%
54% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
New Jersey Eighth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
M
Here’s who won New Jersey congressional primaries on Tuesday
N
New Jersey Seventh Congressional District Primary Election Results
N
New Jersey 12th Congressional District Primary Election Results
N
New Jersey 11th Congressional District Primary Election Results
A
New Jersey Primary Results 2026: Senate and House
T
How a House Race Explains Bob Menendez’s Grip on New Jersey
N
New Jersey 11th Congressional District Special Election 2026: Latest Polls
P
Analilia Mejía takes New Jersey US House special election
M
Hathaway Questions Mejia's "Capture Governing Power" Remarks, Contrasts Activist Politics with Results-Driven Leadership
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-02
Endorsements38 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage13 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks