Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey
house · open seat
New Jersey house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+27) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+38.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+22.7 (10th pctile) to D+54.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +38.8
80% CI: D +22.7 → D +54.9 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +54.6
80% CI D +49.3 → D +58.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NJ-10 House seat?” | 94¢ | 7¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 21 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet21
Endorsements tracked
LaMonica McIver21 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total21
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DLaMonica McIver21 endorsers
Most notable · Teresa Ruiz · majority leader of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 29th district (2008–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- 32BJ SEIU
- AFL-CIO
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Communications Workers of America · District 1
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Emgage · Action
- Essex County · Democratic Committee
- Hudson County · Democratic Committee
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Rutgers · AAUP – AFT
- SEIU · New Jersey State Council
- Union County · Democratic Committee
- Vote Mama
- Working Families Party · ilies Party
Elected officials4
Federal 0State 1Local 2
Elected officials · 4
- Teresa Ruiz · majority leader of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 29th district (2008–present)
- Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present)
- James Solomon · Mayor of Jersey City, New Jersey (2026–present)
- Ras Baraka · mayor of Newark (2014–present)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Lawrence Hamm · activist
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-05-21LaMonica McIverH4NJ10176 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$587.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$112.5
D side
$112.5 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE PEOPLE UNITED PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $112.5 | 100% | for LaMonica McIver |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-05-21
Endorsements21 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks