Races · house · 2026 · New Jersey
house · open seat
New Jersey house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 96% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+22.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+6.0 (10th pctile) to D+38.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +22.1
80% CI: D +6.0 → D +38.2 · win prob 96%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +20.0
80% CI D +13.0 → D +24.8
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-01 House seat?” | 94¢ | 7¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 134 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet134
Endorsements tracked
Donald Norcross134 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total134
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDonald Norcross134 endorsers
Most notable · Teresa Ruiz · majority leader of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 29th district (2008–present)
Elected officials58
Federal 32State 15Local 8
Elected officials · 58
- Teresa Ruiz · majority leader of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 29th district (2008–present)
- Tom Malinowski · former chair of the Hunterdon County Democratic Party (2024–2025), former NJ-07 (2019–2023), and candidate for this district in the April special election
- Jon Corzine · former governor of New Jersey (2006–2010)
- Mikie Sherrill · governor of New Jersey (2026–present)
- Andrew Zwicker · state senator from the 16th district (2022–present)
- Linda Greenstein · state senator from the 14th district (2010–present)
- Patrick Diegnan · state senator from the 18th district (2016–present)
- Keith Ellison · attorney general of Minnesota (2019–present)
- W. Michael Blumenthal · former United States Secretary of the Treasury (1977–1979)
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
- Bonnie Watson Coleman · NJ-12 (2015–present)
- Chuy Garcia · IL-04 (2019–present)
- Delia Ramirez · IL-03 (2023–present)
- Donald Norcross · NJ-01 (2014–present)
- Frank Pallone · NJ-06 (1988–present)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Herb Conaway · NJ-03 (2025–present)
- Ilhan Omar · MN-05 (2019–present)
- Jill Tokuda · HI-02 (2023–present)
- LaMonica McIver · NJ-10 (2024–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Nellie Pou · NJ-09 (2025–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Raja Krishnamoorthi · IL-08 (2017–present)
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
- Rob Menendez · NJ-08 (2023–present)
- Summer Lee · PA-12 (2023–present)
- Andy Kim · New Jersey (2024–present)
- Anthony Verrelli · state assemblymember from the 15th district (2018–present)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Bill Bradley · New Jersey (1979–1997)
- Chris Rabb · Pennsylvania state representative from the 200th district (2017–present)
- Cory Booker · New Jersey (2013–present)
- Dan Benson · Mercer County Executive (2024–present)
- Jamaal Bowman · former NY-16 (2021–2025)
- James J. Kennedy · state assemblymember from the 22nd district (2016–present)
- James Solomon · Mayor of Jersey City, New Jersey (2026–present)
- Jennifer Granholm · former secretary of energy (2021–2025)
- Joseph Danielsen · state assemblymember from the 17th district (2014–present)
- Lateefah Simon · CA-12 (2025-present)
- Linda S. Carter · state assemblymember from the 22nd district (2018–present)
- Mercer County · ty commissioners
- Millstone · mayor of Millstone and former candidate for this district
- Nicholas Scutari · president of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 22nd district (2004–present)
- Princeton Township, New Jersey · rinceton Township, New Jersey (2013–present)
- Randolph · away, Randolph Township Council member, former mayor, and nominee in the April special election
- Ras Baraka · mayor of Newark (2014–present)
- Rashida Tlaib · MI-12 (2019-present)
- Reed Gusciora · mayor of Trenton (2018–present)
- Robert Karabinchak · state assemblyman from the 18th district (2016–present)
- Robert Torricelli · New Jersey (1997–2003)
- Sadaf Jaffer · former state assemblymember from the 16th district (2022–2024)
- Shirley Turner · president pro tempore of the New Jersey Senate (2002–2010, 2024–present) from the 15th district (1998–present)
- Somerset County · ty commissioners
- Sterley Stanley · state assemblyman from the 18th district (2021–present)
- Tammy Duckworth · Illinois (2017–present)
- Wayne DeAngelo · state assemblymember from the 14th district (2008–present)
- county commissioners · rs
Organizations58
Organizations · 58
- Andrew Yang · chair of the Forward Party (2022–present) and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate
- LeRoy J. Jones Jr. · chair of the New Jersey Democratic Party (2021–present)
- 314 Action
- 32BJ SEIU
- AAPI Victory Fund
- AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- American Federation of Government Employees
- American Priorities
- Americans for Tax Reform
- Christopher Street Project
- Citizen Action · ion
- College Democrats · of New Jersey
- Communications Workers of America · District 1
- Congressional Progressive Caucus
- Council on American–Islamic Relations · Action
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Eastern Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters
- Emgage · Action
- Essex County · Democratic Committee
- Franklin Township · Democratic Committee
- Giffords
- Gloucester County · Democratic Committee
- Green Party · college student and Green Party nominee for this district in 2024
- Gun Sense Voter
- Heather H. Howard · former associate director of the United States Domestic Policy Council during the Clinton Administration
- Hindus for Human Rights · Action
- Hotel and Gaming Trades Council
- Hudson County · Democratic Committee
- International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail and Transportation Workers
- J Street
- J Street PAC
- Jewish Voice for Peace · Action
- Justice Democrats
- League of Conservation Voters
- Middlesex County · Democratic Committee
- Morris County · Democratic Committee
- National Education Association
- National Nurses United
- New American Leaders · Action Fund
- New Jersey Education Association
- Our Revolution
- PAL PAC
- Passaic County · Democratic Committee
- Patriotic Millionaires
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Progressive Victory
- Rutgers · AAUP – AFT
- SEIU · New Jersey State Council
- Sunrise Movement
- Track AIPAC
- US Campaign for Palestinian Rights · Action
- Union County · Democratic Committee
- Vote Mama
- With Honor Fund
- Working Families Party · ilies Party
Celebrity12
Celebrity · 12
- Mitchell Duneier · chair of the sociology department at Princeton University
- Shirley M. Tilghman · former president of Princeton University (2001–2013)
- Carlos Brody · investigator of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute
- Danielle Allen · James Bryant Conant University Professor at Harvard University and daughter of William B. Allen
- Hasan Piker · political commentator
- John Hopfield · physicist
- Josh Paul · former director of congressional and public affairs for the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs
- Julie Roginsky · founder of Lift Our Voices
- Lawrence Hamm · activist
- Linda Sarsour · political activist
- Paul DiMaggio · professor of sociology at New York University
- Robert Hamilton Austin · professor of physics at Princeton University
Other6
Other · 6
- April special election · morrow), former money manager and candidate in the April special election
- NJ-10 · ll Jenkins (One for All), candidate for NJ-10 in the 2024 special election
- Spotswood · borney, Spotswood councilmember (running for Middlesex County commission)
- U.S. Army · s, U.S. Army reserve officer, former Middlesex councilmember, and candidate for this seat
- independent · son (For the People), janitor and independent candidate for this seat in 2024
- special · Bucco, perennial candidate and nominee for this district in the 2024 special and regular elections
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-09Donald NorcrossH4NJ01084 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$965.7K
Cash on hand
$2.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Donald Norcross |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-09
Endorsements134 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks