Races · house · 2026 · Nebraska
house · open seat
Nebraska house
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 69% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Likely D (D win prob 77%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.7 (10th pctile) to D+22.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 69% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +6.4
80% CI: R +9.7 → D +22.5 · win prob 69%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +1.9
80% CI R +14.7 → D +11.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +7.0
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 18 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet18
Endorsements tracked
Denise Powell18 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total18
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDenise Powell18 endorsers
Most notable · Dunixi Guereca · state senator from the 7th district (2025–present)
Elected officials10
Federal 6State 3Local 1
Elected officials · 10
- Dunixi Guereca · state senator from the 7th district (2025–present)
- Margo Juarez · state senator from the 5th district (2025–present)
- Tony Vargas · former state senator from the 7th district (2017–2025)
- Andrea Salinas · OR-06 (2003–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Norma Torres · CA-35 (2003–present)
- Annie Kuster · former NH-02 (2013–2025)
- Emily Randall · WA-06 (2025-present)
- Leirion Gaylor Baird · mayor of Lincoln (2019–present)
- Linda Sánchez · CA-38 ) (2003–present)
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC
- EMILY's List
- Elect Democratic Women
- Latino Victory · Fund
- NewDem Action Fund
- PODER PAC
- Vote Mama
Other1
Other · 1
- Human Rights Campaign
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-13Denise PowellH6NE02174 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$324.0K
Debts
$65.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.2M
D side
$3.1M · 97%
R side
$100.0K · 3%
Top spender
FIGHT FOR NEBRASKA PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIGHT FOR NEBRASKA PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.3M | 42% | for Denise Powell |
| CHC BOLD PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $532.1K | 17% | for Denise Powell |
| BOLD America super pac · boosts D
| D | $418.8K | 13% | for Denise Powell |
| Elect Democratic Women pac · boosts D
| D | $300.0K | 9% | for Denise Powell |
| EDW Action Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $199.0K | 6% | for Denise Powell |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Tilt D1
Tilt D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Lean DInside Elections
Tilt DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
3 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
3 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles3
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+1.00
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+1.00
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 100%
100% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets100%
Neutral0%
R-leaning outlets0%
100% of outlets classified by editorial lean
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-13
Endorsements56 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage3 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks