Races · house · 2026 · North Dakota
house · open seat
North Dakota house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+51.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+84.2 (10th pctile) to R+19.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +51.9
80% CI: R +84.3 → R +19.6 · win prob 2%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 25.23pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +38.8
80% CI R +43.0 → R +32.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +17.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 4¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat?” | 4¢ | 94¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks