Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina

house · open seat

Richard Ojeda vs Richard Hudson

← North Carolina house North Carolina house →

Safe RR +19.1 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
6% Ojeda (D)
94% Hudson (R)
Win probability
Richard Ojeda6% (D)
Richard Hudson94% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +19.1
80% CIR+35.2 → R+3.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +19.1 · 80% CI R+35.2 → R+3.0 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.6%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 14¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 94% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.2 (10th pctile) to R+3.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +19.1

80% CI: R +35.2 → R +3.0 · win prob 6%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +21.3

80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.3

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +4.3

80% CI R +6.9 → R +1.7

CV MAE 2.02

consensusMarket-implied

R +9.9

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

10¢20¢30¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?”	14¢	81¢	+1¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

1Ojeda · 33%
Hudson · 67%2
Endorsements tracked
Richard Ojeda1 · 33%
Richard Hudson2 · 67%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RRichard Hudson2 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

DRichard Ojeda1 endorser

Most notable · Patriotic Millionaires

Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-09

Richard OjedaH6NC09218 ↗

Receipts

$1.9M

Disburse

$1.7M

Cash on hand

$224.3K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Richard HudsonOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$2.8M

Disburse

$1.9M

Cash on hand

$1.5M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.3K

D side

$1.3K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

Turn Left PAC

For / against split

For Ojeda $1.3K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
Turn Left PAC	D	$1.3K	100%	for Richard Ojeda

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R1

Safe R3

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Likely R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.