Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Colby Watson vs Mark Harris
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 95% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.1 (10th pctile) to R+4.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 95% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.0
80% CI: R +37.1 → R +4.9 · win prob 5%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.2
80% CI R +32.5 → R +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.3
80% CI R +6.9 → R +1.7
CV MAE 2.02
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.1
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NC-08 House seat?” | 14¢ | 86¢ | +3¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
2
Endorsements tracked
Colby Watson1 · 33%
Mark Harris2 · 67%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RMark Harris2 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Freedom Caucus Fund
DColby Watson1 endorser
Most notable · The Charlotte Observer
Other1
Other · 1
- The Charlotte Observer
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-03Mark HarrisH4NC08066 ↗
Receipts
$749.4K
Disburse
$457.4K
Cash on hand
$399.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Colby Watson
Receipts
$29.1K
Disburse
$27.3K
Cash on hand
$1.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$13.4K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$13.4K · 100%
Top spender
FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND other · boosts R
| R | $13.4K | 100% | for Mark Harris |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-03
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks