Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina

house · open seat

Kim Hardy vs David Rouzer

← North Carolina house North Carolina house →

Safe RR +18.2 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
7% Hardy (D)
93% Rouzer (R)
Win probability
Kim Hardy7% (D)
David Rouzer93% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +18.2
80% CIR+34.3 → R+2.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +18.2 · 80% CI R+34.3 → R+2.1 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 14¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 93% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.3 (10th pctile) to R+2.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 93% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +18.2

80% CI: R +34.3 → R +2.1 · win prob 7%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +19.3

80% CI R +23.4 → R +13.0

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +4.3

80% CI R +6.9 → R +1.7

CV MAE 2.02

consensusMarket-implied

R +10.1

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

0¢10¢20¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NC-07 House seat?”	14¢	87¢	+5¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

1Hardy · 33%
Rouzer · 67%2
Endorsements tracked
Kim Hardy1 · 33%
David Rouzer2 · 67%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RDavid Rouzer2 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

DKim Hardy1 endorser

Most notable · Patriotic Millionaires

Organizations1

LMaad Abu-Ghazalah0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

David RouzerOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$1.5M

Disburse

$968.2K

Cash on hand

$2.0M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Maad Abu-GhazalahOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$7.3K

Disburse

$6.7K

Cash on hand

$595.25

Debts

$2.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R1

Safe R3

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Likely R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.