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Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Cyril Jefferson vs Addison McDowell

← North Carolina houseNorth Carolina house →
Safe RR +21.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
4% Jefferson (D)
96% McDowell (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +21.6 · 80% CI R+37.6 → R+5.5 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.6%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 14¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+37.6 (10th pctile) to R+5.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +21.6
80% CI: R +37.6 → R +5.5 · win prob 4%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +23.1
80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.3
80% CI R +6.9 → R +1.7
CV MAE 2.02
consensusMarket-implied
R +10.3
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 14¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
5¢10¢15¢20¢25¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the NC-06 House seat?”
14¢83¢+1¢—+0

Endorsements · 3 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
1Jefferson · 33%
McDowell · 67%2
RAddison McDowell2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Organizations1
DCyril Jefferson1 endorser
Most notable · Vote Common Good
Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Addison McDowellOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.0M
Disburse
$735.4K
Cash on hand
$277.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Cyril JeffersonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$157.9K
Disburse
$154.7K
Cash on hand
$3.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks