Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Valerie Foushee vs Max Ganorkar
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+23) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+35.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+19.3 (10th pctile) to D+51.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +35.4
80% CI: D +19.3 → D +51.5 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +44.9
80% CI D +34.5 → D +50.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.3
80% CI R +6.9 → R +1.7
CV MAE 2.02
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat?” | 94¢ | 6¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 43 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet43
Endorsements tracked
Valerie Foushee43 · 100%
Max Ganorkar0 · 0%
Total43
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DValerie Foushee43 endorsers
Most notable · Dan Blue · former minority leader of the North Carolina Senate (2014–2025) from the 14th district (2009–present)
Elected officials32
Federal 9State 15Local 2
Elected officials · 32
- Dan Blue · former minority leader of the North Carolina Senate (2014–2025) from the 14th district (2009–present)
- Jay Chaudhuri · minority whip of the North Carolina Senate (2019–present) from the 15th district (2016–present)
- Robert Reives · minority leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives (2021–present) from the 54th district (2014–present)
- Josh Stein · Governor of North Carolina (2025-present) and former Attorney General of North Carolina (2017-2025)
- Roy Cooper · former Governor of North Carolina (2017–2025) and Attorney General of North Carolina (2001-2017)
- Wes Moore · Governor of Maryland (2023-present)
- Gale Adcock · state senator from the 16th district (2023–present)
- Lisa Grafstein · state senator from the 13th district (2023–present)
- Mike Woodard · former state senator from the 22nd district (2013–2025)
- Natalie Murdock · state senator from the 20th district (2020–present)
- Alma Adams · NC-12 (2014–present)
- Deborah Ross · NC-02 (2021–present)
- Don Davis · NC-01 (2023–present)
- Greg Meeks · NY-05 (1998–present)
- Marilyn Strickland · WA-10 (2021–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Allen Buansi · state representative from the 56th district (2022–present)
- Allison Dahle · state representative from the 11th district (2019–present)
- Cheri Beasley · former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court (2019–2020)
- Cheryl Stallings · Wake County commissioner from the 3rd district (2022–present)
- David Price · NC-04 (1987–1995, 1997–2023)
- G. K. Butterfield · NC-01 (2004–2022)
- Leonardo Williams · mayor of Durham (2023–present)
- Maria Cervania · state representative from the 41st district (2023–present)
- Orange County commissioners · rs
- Patricia Timmons-Goodson · former associate justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court (2006–2012)
- Ray Jeffers · state representative from the 2nd district (2023–present)
- Renee Price · state representative from the 50th district (2023–present)
- Vernetta Alston · state representative from the 29th district (2020–present)
- Ya Liu · state representative from the 21st district (2023–present)
- Zack Forde-Hawkins · state representative from the 31st district (2019–present)
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- ASPIRE PAC
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Congressional Progressive Caucus
- Equality North Carolina
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Public First Action
- Sierra Club
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The News & Observer · (Democratic primary only)
RMax Ganorkar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LGuy Meilleur0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-09Valerie FousheeH2NC06114 ↗
Receipts
$823.4K
Disburse
$878.6K
Cash on hand
$30.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Max Ganorkar
Receipts
$5.5K
Disburse
$3.5K
Cash on hand
$17.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.4M
D side
$2.4M · 99%
R side
$23.5K · 1%
Top spender
JOBS AND DEMOCRACY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOBS AND DEMOCRACY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.6M | 67% | for Valerie Foushee |
| Article One PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $600.0K | 25% | for Valerie Foushee |
| Rolling Sea Action Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $150.0K | 6% | for Valerie Foushee |
| CITIZENS AGAINST AIPAC CORRUPTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $23.5K | 1% | against Valerie Foushee |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-09
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks