Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Deborah Ross vs Eugene Douglass
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+29.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+13.4 (10th pctile) to D+45.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +29.5
80% CI: D +13.4 → D +45.6 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +33.5
80% CI D +28.3 → D +43.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.3
80% CI R +6.9 → R +1.7
CV MAE 2.02
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NC-02 House seat?” | 94¢ | 3¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet7
Endorsements tracked
Deborah Ross7 · 100%
Eugene Douglass0 · 0%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDeborah Ross7 endorsers
Most notable · Black Economic Alliance · PAC
Organizations7
Organizations · 7
- Black Economic Alliance · PAC
- Equality North Carolina
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection
- Sierra Club
REugene Douglass0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LMatthew Laszacs0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-01-09Deborah RossH0NC02125 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$802.9K
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$511.58
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 100% | for Deborah Ross |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-01-09
Endorsements7 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks