Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Lakesha Womack vs Tim Moore
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 93% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+8.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.0 (10th pctile) to R+2.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 93% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.9
80% CI: R +35.0 → R +2.8 · win prob 7%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 1 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +22.0
80% CI R +28.4 → R +14.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +8.0
80% CI R +13.2 → R +2.8
CV MAE 4.06
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.6
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 15¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 25 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 15% · polls 40%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NC-14 House seat?” | 15¢ | 83¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -3.4decoupled | 40 · 48 |
Endorsements · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet3
Endorsements tracked
Lakesha Womack0 · 0%
Tim Moore3 · 100%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTim Moore3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- The Charlotte Observer
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DLakesha Womack0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-03-03Tim MooreH4NC14015 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$782.6K
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$80.9K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$80.9K · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS super pac · boosts R
| R | $80.9K | 100% | for Tim Moore |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
4 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
4 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles4
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+1.00
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+1.00
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 100%
100% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets100%
Neutral0%
R-leaning outlets0%
100% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
North Carolina First Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
North Carolina Fourth Congressional District Primary Election Results 2026
N
North Carolina 10th Congressional District Primary Election Results 2026
N
North Carolina 14th Congressional District Primary Election Results 2026
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified1 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-03-03
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage4 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks