Races · house · 2026 · North Carolina
house · open seat
Paul Barringer vs Brad Knott
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 93% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.9 (10th pctile) to R+2.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 93% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.8
80% CI: R +34.9 → R +2.7 · win prob 7%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +21.3
80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.3
80% CI R +6.9 → R +1.7
CV MAE 2.02
consensusMarket-implied
R +9.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 16¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?” | 16¢ | 84¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet3
2
Endorsements tracked
Paul Barringer3 · 60%
Brad Knott2 · 40%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DPaul Barringer3 endorsers
Most notable · David Price · former NC-04 (1987-1995, 1997–2023)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- David Price · former NC-04 (1987-1995, 1997–2023)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- The News & Observer · (Democratic primary only)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Young Democrats of North Carolina
RBrad Knott2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Track AIPAC
LSteven Swinton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Brad Knott
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$511.9K
Cash on hand
$588.2K
Debts
$760.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Paul Barringer
Receipts
$805.6K
Disburse
$379.0K
Cash on hand
$426.6K
Debts
$320.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements5 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks