Races · house · 2026 · MS

house · open seat

Michael Chiaradio vs Michael Guest

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Likely R — · 176 days to election · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

R +32.8

80% CI: R +50.3 → R +15.3 · win prob 1%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models1 models

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

R +32.8

80% CI R +50.3 → R +15.3

CV MAE 13.66

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	Mar 13	—	-18.0	—
Inside Elections	Safe R	Mar 7	—	-18.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe R	Jul 15	—	-18.0	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)