Races · house · 2026 · Mississippi

house · open seat

Michael Chiaradio vs Michael Guest

← Mississippi house Mississippi house →

Safe RR +26.2 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
2% Chiaradio (D)
98% Guest (R)
Win probability
Michael Chiaradio2% (D)
Michael Guest98% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +26.2
80% CIR+42.3 → R+10.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin R +26.2 · 80% CI R+42.3 → R+10.1 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.7%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 4¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 98% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+26.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+42.3 (10th pctile) to R+10.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +26.2

80% CI: R +42.3 → R +10.1 · win prob 2%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

R +34.0

80% CI R +43.0 → R +15.8

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

R +17.7

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 4¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MS-03 House seat?”	4¢	94¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

Guest · 100%2
Endorsements tracked
Michael Chiaradio0 · 0%
Michael Guest2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RMichael Guest2 endorsers

Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)

Elected officials1

Federal 1State 0Local 0

Organizations1

DMichael Chiaradio0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Michael GuestOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$762.8K

Disburse

$332.2K

Cash on hand

$941.9K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Michael ChiaradioOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$101.0K

Disburse

$84.8K

Cash on hand

$16.2K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R4

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe R

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.