Races · house · 2026 · Missouri
house · open seat
Bethany Mann vs Bob Onder
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+25.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.8 (10th pctile) to R+9.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +25.7
80% CI: R +41.8 → R +9.6 · win prob 2%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +28.5
80% CI R +36.5 → R +21.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 8¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MO-03 House seat?” | 8¢ | 91¢ | -2¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet3
Endorsements tracked
Bethany Mann0 · 0%
Bob Onder3 · 100%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RBob Onder3 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- AIPAC
- Missouri Right to Life
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DBethany Mann0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-08-06Bob OnderH4MO03221 ↗
Receipts
$656.8K
Disburse
$439.8K
Cash on hand
$367.4K
Debts
$894.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Bethany Mann
Receipts
$22.4K
Disburse
$23.2K
Cash on hand
$3.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.7K
D side
$1.7K · 99%
R side
$10 · 1%
Top spender
MISSOURI CONSERVATI…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISSOURI CONSERVATIVES FOR CONGRESS PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.7K | 99% | against Bob Onder |
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $10 | 1% | for Bob Onder |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-08-06
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks