Democratic primary · August 4, 2026
Missouri house Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.3pp).
Forecast CI width64
19.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution64 / 100
Measured19.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Wesley BellWesley Jonell-Cleavon Bell (born November 5, 1974) is an American attorney and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Missouri's …
2Cori BushCori Anika Bush is an American politician, nurse, pastor, and Black Lives Matter activist who served as the U.S. representative for Missouri…
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Bell | Bush | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22 | HIT Strategies | 401 · LV | 44 | 40 | +4 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 32 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetCori Bush · 20Wesley Bell · 12
DCori Bush20 endorsers
Most notable · Rashida Tlaib · MI-12 (2019–present)
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- CAIR · Action
- Democratic Socialists of America · of America
- Jewish Voice for Peace
- Justice Democrats
- MoveOn
- National Nurses United
- Our Revolution
- PAL PAC
- Peace Action
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Progressive Victory
- Track AIPAC
- Track Oil PACs
- UNITE HERE · Local 74
- US Campaign for Palestinian Rights · Action
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Rashida Tlaib · MI-12 (2019–present)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Jamaal Bowman · former NY-16 (2021–2025)
Celebrity2
Celebrity · 2
- Hasan Piker · political commentator
- Jenifer Lewis · actress and singer
DWesley Bell12 endorsers
Most notable · Hakeem Jeffries · House minority leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
Organizations9
Organizations · 9
- AFL-CIO · i AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- Congressional Black Caucus
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- National Education Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Elected officials3
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 3
- Hakeem Jeffries · House minority leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
- Katherine Clark · House minority whip (2023–present) from MA-05 (2013–present)
- Pete Aguilar · CA-33 (2015–present)
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-03Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements32 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks