Races · house · 2026 · MN

house · open seat

Jake Johnson vs Brad Finstad

← MN house MN house →

Likely R R +6.5 · 176 days to election · 2 polls · 0 markets Last poll 57d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 2 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% D

likely-r · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

D +33.2

80% CI: D +15.7 → D +50.7 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	2
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models1 models

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

D +33.2

80% CI D +15.7 → D +50.7

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 2 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:2 of 2 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
3/14/2026	Ragnar Research Partners	1.00	R	400	±5.0	LV	commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2 commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Brad Finstad 52.0 · Jake Johnson 42.0	poll arch
2/3/2026	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	708	±3.7	RV	commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned96d old+3 commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. 96d old Poll was fielded 96 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Brad Finstad 44.0 · Jake Johnson 41.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Safe D	Feb 6	-6.5	+18.0	-24.5
Inside Elections	Safe D	Mar 7	-6.5	+18.0	-24.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D	Jul 15	-6.5	+18.0	-24.5

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 8 weeks ago (3/14/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (2 changes)

5/6/2026 Likely R R+6.5 via polls held 2d
5/4/2026 Safe D via pvi