Races · house · 2026 · Michigan
house · open seat
Ray Pooley vs Daltson Atwell
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+29.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.6 (10th pctile) to R+13.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +29.5
80% CI: R +45.6 → R +13.4 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +36.5
80% CI R +42.9 → R +30.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.3
80% CI R +3.3 → D +0.7
CV MAE 1.58
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MI-09 House seat?” | 7¢ | 94¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetRDaltson Atwell0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DRay Pooley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IFernandeo Valdez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-10-01Daltson Atwell
Receipts
$28.2K
Disburse
$28.2K
Cash on hand
$16.69
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ray Pooley
Receipts
$2.5K
Disburse
$1.1K
Cash on hand
$1.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Fernandeo Valdez
Receipts
$1.9K
Disburse
$416.44
Cash on hand
$1.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.5K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$3.5K · 100%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-10-01
Endorsements1 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks