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Races · house · 2026 · Michigan
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Kristen McDonald Rivet vs Amir Hassan

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Likely DD +6.5 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
70% Rivet (D)
30% Hassan (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +6.5 · 80% CI R+9.6 → D+22.6 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 87¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 13d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 70% D · market gap 18pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 88%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.6 (10th pctile) to D+22.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 70% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 70%, market says 88% — 18pp gap.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +6.5
80% CI: R +9.6 → D +22.6 · win prob 70%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +2.5
80% CI R +2.0 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.3
80% CI R +3.3 → D +0.7
CV MAE 1.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +10.7
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 87¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the MI-08 House seat?”
87¢13¢-1¢—-1
Kalshi
“MI-08 House winner?”
88¢10¢+0¢$0K+1

Endorsements · 32 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
22Rivet · 69%
Hassan · 31%10
DKristen McDonald Rivet22 endorsers
Most notable · Bill Schuette · former MI-10 (1985-1991) and former attorney general of Michigan (2011-2019)
Organizations14
Other7
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
RAmir Hassan10 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials9
Federal 8State 1Local 0
Newspapers1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-25
Kristen McDonald RivetH4MI08218 ↗
Receipts
$4.4M
Disburse
$966.9K
Cash on hand
$3.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Amir HassanOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$414.7K
Disburse
$349.3K
Cash on hand
$65.5K
Debts
$10.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$180
D side
$180 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
For / against split
For Rivet $180
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$180100%for Kristen McDonald Rivet

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D2
Lean D1
Cook Political Report
Lean D
Jun 17
The Economist
Safe D
May 21
Inside Elections
Likely D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 23, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 18, 2026Lean Dmodel
Jun 17, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Jun 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
Jun 14, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Tilt Dmodel
+ 3 earlier changes
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-25
Endorsements32 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks