Races · house · 2026 · Michigan

house · open seat

Michigan house

← Michigan house Michigan house →

Safe DD +24.6 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
97% Dingell (D)
3% (R)
Win probability
Debbie Dingell97% (D)
Republican3% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +24.6
80% CID+8.5 → D+40.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +24.6 · 80% CI D+8.5 → D+40.7 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 94¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.5 (10th pctile) to D+40.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +24.6

80% CI: D +8.5 → D +40.7 · win prob 97%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models3 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +26.0

80% CI D +20.3 → D +37.6

CV MAE 8.51

bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman

R +1.3

80% CI R +3.3 → D +0.7

CV MAE 1.58

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.8

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat?”	94¢	4¢	+0¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 9 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

9Dingell · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Debbie Dingell9 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total9
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DDebbie Dingell9 endorsers

Most notable · Emgage · Action

Organizations9

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Debbie DingellOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$882.2K

Disburse

$855.1K

Cash on hand

$370.4K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

The Economist

Safe D

May 21

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

In the news

15 shown · last 30d · Google News

News volume · 30d

15 articles · building history

Net favorability

+0.40

Coverage lean (D−R) · shift 0.00 wk

Coverage tilt

D 40%

Neutral 60%

40% of outlets rated · by editorial lean

semafor.com · 2d ago

Exclusive / Progressives see polling, candidate momentum in Michigan

Neutral

theguardian.com · 6d ago

AOC endorses progressive Democrat in closely watched Michigan race for US Senate seat | US midterm elections 2026

D-favorable

nytimes.com · 6d ago

Michigan Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls

D-favorable

freep.com · 7d ago

Freep nod for Michigan's 7th U.S. House District | Endorsement

Neutral

nytimes.com · 9d ago

Michigan Fourth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls

D-favorable

nytimes.com · 12d ago

Who Is Ahead in the Michigan Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls

D-favorable

nytimes.com · 12d ago

Michigan U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls

D-favorable

spectrumlocalnews.com · 13d ago

2026 election guide: Michigan’s primary is 40 days away. See who's on the ballot

Neutral

michiganadvance.com · 13d ago

After Trump’s endorsement of John James, what’s left of Michigan’s GOP governor race?

Neutral

the-downballot.com · 15d ago

Morning Digest: Trump endorses Michigan candidate he begged not to run for governor

Neutral

detroitnews.com · 17d ago

Insider: Shaky polls cause uproar in Michigan Senate, governor races

Neutral

politico.com · 21d ago

Michigan pollster accuses McMorrow campaign of killing unfavorable Senate poll

D-favorable

michiganindependent.com · 21d ago

Your guide to voting in Michigan’s 2026 elections

Neutral

lansingstatejournal.com · 22d ago

What's your favorite Michigan beach? Take the LSJ poll

Neutral

michiganadvance.com · 29d ago

Michigan’s U.S. Senate primary highlights divisions within Democratic Party

Neutral

Rating timeline

May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 3, 2026Tossupmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage15 / 30dGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks