Races · house · 2026 · Michigan
house · open seat
Christian Vukasovich vs Tim Walberg
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+26.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+42.3 (10th pctile) to R+10.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +26.2
80% CI: R +42.3 → R +10.1 · win prob 2%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +28.5
80% CI R +36.5 → R +21.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.3
80% CI R +3.3 → D +0.7
CV MAE 1.58
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 8¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the MI-05 House seat?” | 8¢ | 92¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Christian Vukasovich0 · 0%
Tim Walberg2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RTim Walberg2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
DChristian Vukasovich0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Tim Walberg
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$952.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Christian Vukasovich
Receipts
$14.8K
Disburse
$5.2K
Cash on hand
$9.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RThe Economist
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks