Races · house · 2026 · MI
house · open seat

Sean McCann vs Mike Bouchard Jr.

← MI house MI house →
Lean R R +2.0 · 176 days to election · 7 polls · 0 markets Last poll 57d ago Rating 1d ago
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 76% R

lean-r · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +9.6
80% CI: R +27.1 → D +7.9 · win prob 24%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used7
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +9.6
80% CI R +27.1 → D +7.9
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 7 results

7 of 7 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
3/14/2026Ragnar Research Partners1.00R400±5.0LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+2
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bill Huizenga 48.0 · Sean McCann 42.0pollarch
1/17/2026Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)592±4.0RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned113d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 113d old
    Poll was fielded 113 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Mike Bouchard Jr. 43.0 · Eric Chung 41.0pollarch
1/17/2026Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)592±4.0RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned113d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 113d old
    Poll was fielded 113 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Mike Bouchard Jr. 44.0 · Tim Greimel 42.0pollarch
1/17/2026Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)592±4.0RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned113d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 113d old
    Poll was fielded 113 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Mike Bouchard Jr. 42.0 · Christina Hines 44.0pollarch
11/21/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)559±4.1RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned170d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 170d old
    Poll was fielded 170 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Bill Huizenga 44.0 · Sean McCann 42.0pollarch
10/28/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)557±4.2RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned194d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 194d old
    Poll was fielded 194 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Tom Barrett 41.0 · Bridget Brink 45.0pollarch
10/28/2025Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)557±4.2RV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned194d old+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • 194d old
    Poll was fielded 194 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Tom Barrett 39.0 · Matt Maasdam 43.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Likely R Feb 6 -2.0 -9.0 +7.0
Inside Elections Lean R Dec 5 -2.0 -3.5 +1.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R Jul 15 -2.0 -9.0 +7.0

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 8 weeks ago (3/14/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/6/2026 Lean R R+2.0 via polls held 2d
  • 5/4/2026 Tilt R via pvi

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