Races · house · 2026 · Michigan
house · open seat
Sean McCann vs Bill Huizenga
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 12d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 69% R
Polling average rates this race Tilt R (R+1.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+6.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.3 (10th pctile) to D+9.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 69% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 89/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · tilt-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
89
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement39
7.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution39 / 100
Measured7.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +6.2
80% CI: R +22.3 → D +9.9 · win prob 31%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +9.4
80% CI R +11.8 → R +7.5
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.6
80% CI R +4.5 → D +1.2
CV MAE 2.25
consensusMarket-implied
R +3.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 37¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 11 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 37% · polls 48%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Mar 14, 2026 · latest Ragnar Research Partners
Rep
VoteHub43.0%
VoteHub
Polling average43.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Dem
VoteHub42.0%
VoteHub
Polling average42.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Mar 14, 2026): Rep 43.0%, Dem 42.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 26 | GBAO+1For · Internal D-aligned | 500 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +9.3d lean | 48 · 45 |
| Mar 13, 26 | Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Internal R-aligned | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | — | -3.4decoupled | 42 · 48 |
| Nov 20, 25 | Public Policy Polling+2For · Internal D-aligned | 559 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.9104 tracked | +2.4noisy | 42 · 44 |
Endorsements · 19 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet17
2
Endorsements tracked
Sean McCann17 · 89%
Bill Huizenga2 · 11%
Total19
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSean McCann17 endorsers
Most notable · Winnie Brinks · Senate Majority Leader (2023–present) from SD-29 (2019–present)
Elected officials9
Federal 5State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 9
- Winnie Brinks · Senate Majority Leader (2023–present) from SD-29 (2019–present)
- Gretchen Whitmer · governor of Michigan (2019–present)
- Jocelyn Benson · secretary of state of Michigan (2019–present)
- Greg Stanton · AZ-04 (2019–present)
- Hillary Scholten · MI-03 (2023–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-06 (2019–present)
- Matt Longjohn · HD-40 (2025–present)
- Suzan DelBene · WA-01 (2012–present)
- Mark Schauer · former MI-07 (2009–2011)
Organizations8
Organizations · 8
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- DCCC · Red to Blue
- Human Rights Campaign
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters · Local 406
- Michigan Education Association
- SMART · transportation division
- United Association · sociation
- United Auto Workers · Region 1D
RBill Huizenga2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Bill Huizenga
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$1.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Sean McCann
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$522.9K
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Lean R4
Lean R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Lean RThe Economist
Lean RInside Elections
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
TossupDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
45 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles45
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.22
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.06 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.22
Week-over-weekshift −0.06 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 22%
Neutral 78%
22% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets22%
Neutral78%
R-leaning outlets0%
22% of outlets classified by editorial lean
B
Pete Buttigieg endorses Benson for Michigan governor, hints at White House run
S
Exclusive / Progressives see polling, candidate momentum in Michigan
T
Dem Rising Star Mallory McMorrow Suspends Michigan Senate Campaign in Shock Move
I
Democratic rising star Mallory McMorrow unexpectedly drops out of key Michigan Senate race
O
Meet the Democrats running in Michigan’s 95th House primary
D
Meet the Matthew Stafford running for the Michigan House
A
AAPAC endorses Alabas Farhat, Gary Schlack in Michigan House races
F
Freep's pick in Michigan's 11th U.S. House district | Endorsement
T
AOC endorses progressive Democrat in closely watched Michigan race for US Senate seat | US midterm elections 2026
F
Freep nod for Michigan's 7th U.S. House District | Endorsement
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements21 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks