Races · house · 2026 · Michigan
house · open seat
Hillary Scholten vs Ryan Cushman
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 0d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 88% D
With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 89%, market-derived).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+15.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.1 (10th pctile) to D+31.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 88% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +15.0
80% CI: R +1.1 → D +31.1 · win prob 88%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +8.9
80% CI D +5.5 → D +20.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.3
80% CI R +3.3 → D +0.7
CV MAE 1.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +11.6
no interval
market-implied
Endorsements · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet10
Endorsements tracked
Hillary Scholten10 · 100%
Ryan Cushman0 · 0%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DHillary Scholten10 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- AIPAC
- Black Economic Alliance · PAC
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Michigan Education Association
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sierra Club
- Vote Mama
RRyan Cushman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-25Hillary ScholtenH0MI03316 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$1.0M
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ryan Cushman
Receipts
$15.2K
Disburse
$15.2K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$15.2K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$133.33
D side
$133.33 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $133.33 | 100% | for Hillary Scholten |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 21
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-25
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks