Races · house · 2026 · Michigan
house · open seat
Aisha Farooqi vs Mike Steger
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 96% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+9) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+21.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.6 (10th pctile) to D+37.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +21.7
80% CI: D +5.6 → D +37.8 · win prob 96%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +17.2
80% CI D +12.3 → D +24.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.3
80% CI R +3.3 → D +0.7
CV MAE 1.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MI-11 House seat?” | 95¢ | 3¢ | +2¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 5 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet5
Endorsements tracked
Aisha Farooqi5 · 100%
Mike Steger0 · 0%
Total5
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DAisha Farooqi5 endorsers
Most notable · Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- CAIR Action
- Emgage · Action
- Michigan Democratic Party · Progressive Caucus
- Track AIPAC
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Ro Khanna · CA-17 (2017–present)
RMike Steger0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-02-25Aisha Farooqi
Receipts
$269.2K
Disburse
$219.2K
Cash on hand
$49.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mike Steger
Receipts
$28.6K
Disburse
$13.3K
Cash on hand
$15.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$381.81
D side
$381.81 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D5
Safe D · 5 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- The Economist · May 21
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DThe Economist
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
16 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
16 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles16
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.38
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.10 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.38
Week-over-weekshift −0.10 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 38%
Neutral 62%
38% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets38%
Neutral62%
R-leaning outlets0%
38% of outlets classified by editorial lean
S
Exclusive / Progressives see polling, candidate momentum in Michigan
A
AAPAC endorses Alabas Farhat, Gary Schlack in Michigan House races
N
Michigan Seventh Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
T
AOC endorses progressive Democrat in closely watched Michigan race for US Senate seat | US midterm elections 2026
F
Freep nod for Michigan's 7th U.S. House District | Endorsement
N
Michigan Fourth Congressional District 2026: Latest Polls
N
Michigan U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
S
2026 election guide: Michigan’s primary is 40 days away. See who's on the ballot
M
After Trump’s endorsement of John James, what’s left of Michigan’s GOP governor race?
N
Who Is Ahead in the Michigan Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-02-25
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage16 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks