Races · house · 2026 · ME
house · open seat

Jared Golden vs Paul LePage

← MD house ME house →
Lean R R +2.8 · 176 days to election · 10 polls · 0 markets Last poll 72d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 10 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 94% D

lean-r · trending-r · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +21.3
80% CI: D +3.8 → D +38.8 · win prob 94%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used10
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +21.3
80% CI D +3.8 → D +38.8
CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 10 results

10 of 10 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
2/27/2026Upswing Research1.00L403±4.9LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 72d old
    Poll was fielded 72 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 54 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jordan Wood 45.0 · Paul LePage 52.0pollarch
2/16/2026University of New Hampshire1.00—(R+0.9)520—LV
83d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2
  • 83d old
    Poll was fielded 83 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Joe Baldacci 47.0 · Paul LePage 48.0pollarch
2/16/2026University of New Hampshire1.00—(R+0.9)521—LV
83d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2
  • 83d old
    Poll was fielded 83 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Matt Dunlap 46.0 · Paul LePage 47.0pollarch
2/16/2026University of New Hampshire1.00—(R+0.9)521—LV
83d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2
  • 83d old
    Poll was fielded 83 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Jordan Wood 44.0 · Paul LePage 48.0pollarch
12/7/2025Pan Atlantic Research1.00—387±5.1LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+4
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • n=387
    Sample size of 387 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical.
  • 154d old
    Poll was fielded 154 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Joe Baldacci 43.0 · Paul LePage 44.0pollarch
10/21/2025University of New Hampshire1.00—(R+0.9)546—LV
201d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2
  • 201d old
    Poll was fielded 201 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Jared Golden 44.0 · Paul LePage 49.0pollarch
6/23/2025University of New Hampshire1.00—(R+0.9)394±4.9unknown
n=394321d old+2
  • n=394
    Sample size of 394 respondents implies a margin of error around ±4.9pt — wider than typical.
  • 321d old
    Poll was fielded 321 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • bias R+0.9pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
Jared Golden 47.0 · Paul LePage 50.0pollarch
6/10/2025The Mellman Group1.00—400±4.9LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+2
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 334d old
    Poll was fielded 334 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Matt Dunlap 37.0 · Paul LePage 47.0pollarch
6/10/2025The Mellman Group1.00—400±4.9LV
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-alignedno scored polls+2
  • commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 334d old
    Poll was fielded 334 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jared Golden 44.0 · Paul LePage 43.0pollarch
4/15/2025Ragnar Research Partners1.00R400±4.9LV
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-alignedno scored polls+3
  • commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned
    This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 390d old
    Poll was fielded 390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jared Golden 43.0 · Paul LePage 48.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Safe D Nov 6 -2.8 +18.0 -20.8
Inside Elections Safe D Nov 5 -2.8 +18.0 -20.8
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D Nov 5 -2.8 +18.0 -20.8

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 2 months ago (2/27/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (2 changes)
  • 5/6/2026 Lean R R+2.8 via polls held 2d
  • 5/4/2026 Likely D via pvi

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