Races · house · 2026 · Maryland
house · open seat
Maryland house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+25.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+8.9 (10th pctile) to D+41.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +25.0
80% CI: D +8.9 → D +41.1 · win prob 98%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +26.0
80% CI D +20.3 → D +37.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +17.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 96¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MD-03 House seat?” | 96¢ | 6¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 16 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet16
Endorsements tracked
Sarah Elfreth16 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total16
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSarah Elfreth16 endorsers
Most notable · Wes Moore · Maryland governor (2023–present)
Organizations15
Organizations · 15
- AFL-CIO · d State & DC AFL-CIO
- AIPAC
- American Federation of Government Employees
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees · Council 3
- Elect Democratic Women
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters · Action Fund
- Moms Demand Action
- National Education Association
- National Women's Political Caucus
- Natural Resources Defense Council · Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Service Employees International Union · Local 500
- Sierra Club
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 1994 MCGEO
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Wes Moore · Maryland governor (2023–present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-01-15Sarah ElfrethH4MD03156 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$779.9K
Cash on hand
$314.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.6K
D side
$1.6K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
NEA ADVOCACY FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEA ADVOCACY FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.6K | 100% | for Sarah Elfreth |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-01-15
Endorsements16 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks