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Races · house · 2026 · Maryland
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house · open seat

Johnny Olszewski vs Dave Wallace

← Maryland houseMaryland house →
Safe DD +22.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
97% Olszewski (D)
3% Wallace (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +22.8 · 80% CI D+6.7 → D+38.9 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 95¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+10) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+22.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+6.7 (10th pctile) to D+38.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +22.8
80% CI: D +6.7 → D +38.9 · win prob 97%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +20.0
80% CI D +13.0 → D +24.8
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +16.4
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 95¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the MD-02 House seat?”
95¢6¢+2¢—+0

Endorsements · 18 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
18Olszewski · 100%
DJohnny Olszewski18 endorsers
Most notable · Wes Moore · Maryland governor (2023–present)
Organizations16
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Newspapers1
RDave Wallace0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-10-01
Johnny OlszewskiH4MD02232 ↗
Receipts
$962.2K
Disburse
$516.1K
Cash on hand
$612.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Dave WallaceOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$16.5K
Disburse
$16.0K
Cash on hand
$512.84
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$10
D side
$10 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
SIERRA CLUB INDEPEN…
For / against split
For Olszewski $10
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$10100%for Johnny Olszewski

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-10-01
Endorsements18 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks