Races · house · 2026 · Maryland
house · open seat
Dan Schwartz vs Andy Harris
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 93% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.5 (10th pctile) to R+2.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 93% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.4
80% CI: R +34.5 → R +2.3 · win prob 7%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +21.3
80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +7.5
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 21¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat?” | 21¢ | 78¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet3
4
Endorsements tracked
Dan Schwartz3 · 43%
Andy Harris4 · 57%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RAndy Harris4 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- AIPAC
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- National Rifle Association
- National Right to Life Committee
DDan Schwartz3 endorsers
Most notable · Wayne Gilchrest · MD-01 (1991–2009) (formerly Republican)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Wayne Gilchrest · MD-01 (1991–2009) (formerly Republican)
- Wes Moore · Maryland governor (2023–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Moms Demand Action
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-03Andy HarrisH8MD01094 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$1.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Dan Schwartz
Receipts
$617.9K
Disburse
$586.5K
Cash on hand
$31.4K
Debts
$9.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$15.3K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$15.3K · 100%
Top spender
FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $15.3K | 100% | for Andy Harris |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-03
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks