Races · house · 2026 · Massachusetts

house · open seat

Bill Keating vs Tyler Macallister

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Safe DD +17.9 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
92% Keating (D)
8% Macallister (R)
Win probability
Bill Keating92% (D)
Tyler Macallister8% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +17.9
80% CID+1.9 → D+34.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +17.9 · 80% CI D+1.9 → D+34.0 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 93¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 92% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.9 (10th pctile) to D+34.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · lean-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +17.9

80% CI: D +1.9 → D +34.0 · win prob 92%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +12.6

80% CI D +7.8 → D +23.0

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +14.0

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 93¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the MA-09 House seat?”	93¢	7¢	-1¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

DBill Keating0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RTyler Macallister0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

INadia Milleron0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Bill KeatingOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$302.7K

Disburse

$450.7K

Cash on hand

$517.8K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Tyler MacallisterOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$143.2K

Disburse

$88.4K

Cash on hand

$54.8K

Debts

$1.0K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D4

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.