Democratic primary · September 1, 2026
Massachusetts house Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.4pp).
Forecast CI width65
19.4pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution65 / 100
Measured19.4pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 1 poll + fundamentals1Patrick RoathThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Massachusetts will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the nine U.S. represen…
2Stephen LynchStephen Francis Lynch is an American businessman, lawyer, and politician who has served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives fro…
All polls · 1 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lynch | Roath | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18 | Workbench Strategy | 400 · LV | 62 | 36 | +26 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 12 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetPatrick Roath · 10Stephen Lynch · 2
DPatrick Roath10 endorsers
Most notable · David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
Elected officials5
Federal 0State 4Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- David Hogg · former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee (2025)
- Deval Patrick · former governor of Massachusetts (2007–2015)
- Jay Livingstone · state representative from the 8th Suffolk district (2013–present)
- John F. Moran · state representative from the 9th Suffolk district (2023–present)
- Sam Montaño · state representative from the 15th Suffolk district (2023–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- American Federation of Teachers · Massachusetts
- Boston Teachers Union
- College Democrats · of Massachusetts
- Leaders We Deserve
Other1
Other · 1
- College Democrats of Massachusetts
DStephen Lynch2 endorsers
Most notable · J Street
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- J Street
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 1deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks