Races · house · 2026 · Massachusetts
house · open seat
Massachusetts house
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 96% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+11) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+22.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.9 (10th pctile) to D+38.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +22.0
80% CI: D +5.9 → D +38.1 · win prob 96%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +20.8
80% CI R +20.8 → D +31.2
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +15.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the MA-04 House seat?” | 94¢ | 4¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 26 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet26
Endorsements tracked
Jake Auchincloss26 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total26
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DJake Auchincloss26 endorsers
Most notable · Cynthia Stone Creem · majority leader of the Massachusetts Senate (2018–present) from the Norfolk and Middlesex district (1999–present)
Elected officials20
Federal 0State 19Local 0
Elected officials · 20
- Cynthia Stone Creem · majority leader of the Massachusetts Senate (2018–present) from the Norfolk and Middlesex district (1999–present)
- Becca Rausch · state senator from the Norfolk, Worcester and Middlesex district (2019–present)
- Michael Rodrigues · state senator from the 1st Bristol and Plymouth district (2011–present)
- Paul Feeney · state senator from the Bristol and Norfolk district (2017–present)
- Adam Scanlon · state representative from the 14th Bristol district (2021–present)
- Alan Silvia · state representative from the 7th Bristol district (2013–present)
- Alice Peisch · state representative from the 14th Norfolk district (2003–present)
- Amy Mah Sangiolo · state representative from the 11th Middlesex district (2025–present)
- Brian Murray · state representative from the 10th Worcester district (2017–present)
- Carole Fiola · state representative from the 6th Bristol district (2013–present)
- Dennis Gallagher · state representative from the 8th Plymouth district (2025–present)
- Greg Schwartz · state representative from the 12th Middlesex district (2025–present)
- James Arena-DeRosa · state representative from the 8th Middlesex district (2023–present)
- Jeffrey Roy · state representative from the 10th Norfolk district (2013–present)
- Jim Hawkins · state representative from the 2nd Bristol district (2018–present)
- Joshua Tarsky · state representative from the 13th Norfolk district (2025–present)
- Lisa Field · state representative from the 3rd Bristol district (2025–present)
- Steven Ouellette · state representative from the 8th Bristol district (2025–present)
- Ted Philips · state representative from the 8th Norfolk district (2021–present)
- Tommy Vitolo · state representative from the 15th Norfolk district (2019–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AIPAC
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Vote Vets
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Jake Auchincloss
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$914.7K
Cash on hand
$7.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
3 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
3 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles3
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.33
Coverage lean (D−R) · first week of data
Net favorability
Score+0.33
Week-over-weekfirst week of data
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 33%
Neutral 67%
33% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets33%
Neutral67%
R-leaning outlets0%
33% of outlets classified by editorial lean
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements26 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage3 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks