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Races · house · 2026 · Massachusetts
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Massachusetts house

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Safe DD +20.9 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
95% Neal (D)
5% (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +20.9 · 80% CI D+4.8 → D+37.0 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 94¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+20.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+4.8 (10th pctile) to D+37.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · likely-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +20.9
80% CI: D +4.8 → D +37.0 · win prob 95%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +17.2
80% CI D +11.2 → D +23.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
85¢90¢95¢100¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the MA-01 House seat?”
94¢6¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 5 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
5Neal · 100%
DRichard Neal5 endorsers
Most notable · AIPAC
Organizations5
INadia Milleron0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Richard NealOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$4.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Nadia MilleronOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$26.9K
Disburse
$18.0K
Cash on hand
$22.0K
Debts
$75.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 14, 2026Safe Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 5, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 3, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks