Races · house · 2026 · Kentucky
house · open seat
Kentucky house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.1 (10th pctile) to R+11.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 97/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
97
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement53
10.7pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution53 / 100
Measured10.7pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.0
80% CI: R +44.1 → R +11.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +38.7
80% CI R +51.1 → R +19.9
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.0
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 8¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat?” | 8¢ | 93¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 17 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet17
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Ed Gallrein17 · 100%
Total17
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
REd Gallrein17 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Other8
Other · 8
- Gex Williams · SD-20 (2023–present) and SD-24 (1993–1999)
- Lauren Boebert · CO-04 (2025–present) and CO-03 (2021-2025)
- Savannah Maddox · HD-61 (2021–present)
- James Fishback · investor and 2026 Florida gubernatorial candidate
- Justin Amash · former MI-03 (2011–2021)
- Marjorie Taylor Greene · former GA-14 (2021–2026)
- Rand Paul · Kentucky (2011–present)
- Right to Life · ucky Right to Life
Elected officials6
Federal 5State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Ron DeSantis · governor of Florida (2019–present)
- Pete Hegseth · U.S. secretary of defense (2025–present)
- Andy Barr · KY-06 (2013–present)
- Erin Houchin · IN-09 (2023–present)
- Tim Sheehy · Montana (2025–present)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- MAHA · PAC
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Nate Morris · businessman and 2026 U.S. Senate candidate
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-19Ed GallreinH6KY04171 ↗
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$543.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$12.7M
D side
$7.0M · 55%
R side
$5.7M · 45%
Top spender
KENTUCKY 4TH PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENTUCKY 4TH PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $6.7M | 53% | against Ed Gallrein |
| RJC Victory Fund super pac · boosts R
| R | $3.9M | 30% | for Ed Gallrein |
| MAGA KY super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.3M | 10% | for Ed Gallrein |
| UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT (UDP) super pac · boosts R
| R | $579.3K | 5% | for Ed Gallrein |
| HOLD THE LINE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $285.0K | 2% | against Ed Gallrein |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-19
Endorsements34 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks