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Races · house · 2026 · Kentucky
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

William Compton vs Joshua Ferguson

← Kentucky houseKentucky house →
Safe RR +33.3 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
1% Compton (D)
99% Ferguson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin R +33.3 · 80% CI R+49.4 → R+17.2 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.7%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 7¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+49.4 (10th pctile) to R+17.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.3
80% CI: R +49.4 → R +17.2 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +41.2
80% CI R +53.7 → R +32.6
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
0¢5¢10¢15¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Republican Party win the KY-02 House seat?”
7¢94¢+0¢—+0

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
2Compton · 100%
DWilliam Compton2 endorsers
Most notable · Progressive Victory
Organizations2
RJoshua Ferguson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-06
William ComptonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$62.1K
Disburse
$58.4K
Cash on hand
$271.6
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Joshua FergusonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$7.1K
Disburse
$7.0K
Cash on hand
$65
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$80.3K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$80.3K · 100%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Guthrie $80.3K

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R4
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe R
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 3, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-06
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks