Races · house · 2026 · Kansas
house · open seat
Chris Carmichael vs Ron Estes
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.9 (10th pctile) to R+8.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.8
80% CI: R +40.9 → R +8.7 · win prob 2%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +28.5
80% CI R +36.5 → R +19.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +13.2
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 9¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?” | 9¢ | 91¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Chris Carmichael0 · 0%
Ron Estes2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RRon Estes2 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- AIPAC
DChris Carmichael0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IPaul Catanese0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LDrew Cranmer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Ron Estes
Receipts
$1.5M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Chris Carmichael
Receipts
$85.4K
Disburse
$42.0K
Cash on hand
$43.5K
Debts
$2.4K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Paul Catanese
Receipts
$3.0K
Disburse
$798.73
Cash on hand
$2.2K
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
7 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
7 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles7
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.29
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.67 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.29
Week-over-weekshift −0.67 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 29%
Neutral 71%
29% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets29%
Neutral71%
R-leaning outlets0%
29% of outlets classified by editorial lean
K
Kansas primary voting: Key dates, mail ballot deadline, poll hours for Aug. 4
N
Who Is Ahead in the Kansas Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
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Kansas poll of likely Democratic voters favors Holscher for governor, Hamilton for U.S. Senate
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Kansas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
K
Kansas Republicans could try to delay election for U.S. Senate if Roger Marshall leaves office
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Democrats target these Kansas House races to break GOP supermajority
K
Who’s got the juice? Kansas candidates for governor make their pitches to primary voters.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage7 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks