Races · house · 2026 · Kansas

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Kansas house

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Likely DD +12.9 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 2 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today

Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
85% Davids (D)
15% (R)
Win probability
Sharice Davids85% (D)
Republican15% (R)
Modelupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +12.9
80% CIR+3.2 → D+29.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Predicted final margin D +12.9 · 80% CI R+3.2 → D+29.0 · 3 months 27 days to election

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

3.8%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

D 87¢

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

articles · new

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 32d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 85% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.2 (10th pctile) to D+29.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 85% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

CITATIONS · tilt-d · low-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +12.9

80% CI: R +3.2 → D +29.0 · win prob 85%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	118
Residual σ	12.56pt
Generated	7/7/2026

▼ Compare with other models2 models

qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)

D +7.1

80% CI D +2.7 → D +13.4

CV MAE 8.51

consensusMarket-implied

D +10.6

no interval

market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 87¢1 platformupdated 11h ago

Cross-platform price · history

80¢85¢90¢95¢54 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWMay 14Jul 7

Per-platform · current

Platform	D YES	R YES	7d Δ	Vol	vs cons
Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?”	87¢	13¢	-2¢	—	+0

Endorsements · 11 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet

11Davids · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Sharice Davids11 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total11
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DSharice Davids11 endorsers

Most notable · Governor of Kansas · inessman and candidate for Governor of Kansas in 2022

Organizations9

Elected officials1

Federal 0State 1Local 0

Other1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Sharice DavidsOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$2.9M

Disburse

$1.9M

Cash on hand

$1.4M

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

Likely D1

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jun 17

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Jun 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

In the news

40 shown · last 30d · Google News

News volume · 30d

42 articles · building history

Net favorability

+0.07

Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.15 wk

Coverage tilt

D 7%

Neutral 93%

7% of outlets rated · by editorial lean

aol.com · 22h ago

Democrats target these Kansas House races to break GOP supermajority