Races · house · 2026 · Indiana
house · open seat
J. D. Ford vs Victoria Spartz
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 93% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.2 (10th pctile) to R+2.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 93% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.6% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · likely-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.1
80% CI: R +34.2 → R +2.0 · win prob 7%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +21.3
80% CI R +32.5 → R +13.3
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +7.4
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 21¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?” | 21¢ | 75¢ | +1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 8 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet4
4
Endorsements tracked
J. D. Ford4 · 50%
Victoria Spartz4 · 50%
Total8
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RVictoria Spartz4 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AIPAC
- Maggie's List
- NRA Political Victory Fund
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
DJ. D. Ford4 endorsers
Most notable · Shelli Yoder · minority leader of the Indiana State Senate from district 40 (2020-present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- IAFF · Local 1262
- SMART
- United Auto Workers · Region 2B
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Shelli Yoder · minority leader of the Indiana State Senate from district 40 (2020-present)
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-01Victoria Spartz
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$56.0K
Debts
$200.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
J. D. Ford
Receipts
$230.5K
Disburse
$158.1K
Cash on hand
$72.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$24.0K
D side
$24.0K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R1
Likely R · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jul 5
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-01
Endorsements9 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks