Races · house · 2026 · Indiana
house · open seat
Joe Mackey vs Jim Baird
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.5 (10th pctile) to R+12.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.4
80% CI: R +44.5 → R +12.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +34.8
80% CI R +42.9 → R +30.5
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
R +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 7¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the IN-04 House seat?” | 7¢ | 93¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 6 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet1
5
Endorsements tracked
Joe Mackey1 · 17%
Jim Baird5 · 83%
Total6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJim Baird5 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- AIPAC
- Indiana Farm Bureau AgELECT PAC
- NRA Political Victory Fund
Elected officials2
Federal 2State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 2
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
DJoe Mackey1 endorser
Most notable · Track AIPAC
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Track AIPAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-05-05Jim BairdH8IN04199 ↗
Receipts
$283.5K
Disburse
$314.7K
Cash on hand
$183.4K
Debts
$210.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Joe Mackey
Receipts
$10.3K
Disburse
$7.6K
Cash on hand
$2.7K
Debts
$15.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$781.7K
D side
$250.0K · 32%
R side
$531.7K · 68%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS super pac · boosts R
| R | $513.9K | 66% | for Jim Baird |
| HOMELAND PAC INC super pac · boosts D
| D | $200.0K | 26% | against Jim Baird |
| The Oversight Project other · boosts D
| D | $50.0K | 6% | against Jim Baird |
| National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee pac · boosts R
| R | $11.8K | 2% | for Jim Baird |
| PATRIOTIC FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $6.1K | 1% | for Jim Baird |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R4
Safe R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-05-05
Endorsements8 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks