Races · house · 2026 · IN
house · open seat

Frank Mrvan vs Jennifer-Ruth Green

← IL house IN house →
Tossup — · 176 days to election · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 61% D

tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
D +4.0
80% CI: R +13.5 → D +21.5 · win prob 61%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election181
Residual σ13.66pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models1 models
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
D +4.0
80% CI R +13.5 → D +21.5
CV MAE 13.66

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Likely D Feb 6 — +9.0 —
Inside Elections Lean D Mar 7 — +3.5 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D Jul 15 — +3.5 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/4/2026 Tossup via pvi

In the news

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