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Races · house · 2026 · Indiana
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Frank Mrvan vs Barb Regnitz

← Illinois houseIndiana house →
Likely DD +7.8 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
73% Mrvan (D)
27% Regnitz (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +7.8 · 80% CI R+8.3 → D+23.9 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 85¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 73% D · market gap 14pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 87%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.3 (10th pctile) to D+23.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 73% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 73%, market says 87% — 14pp gap.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · market-disagreement-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +7.8
80% CI: R +8.3 → D +23.9 · win prob 73%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +4.8
80% CI D +2.3 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +9.7
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 85¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
40¢50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat?”
84¢17¢+1¢—-2
Kalshi
“IN-01 House winner?”
87¢11¢+6¢$0K+2

Endorsements · 24 total

Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet
18Mrvan · 75%
Regnitz · 25%6
DFrank Mrvan18 endorsers
Most notable · Lake County · yer, Lake County councilor, chair of the Lake County Republican Party, and nominee for this district in 2024
Organizations11
Other7
RBarb Regnitz6 endorsers
Most notable · Erin Houchin · IN-09 (2023–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 5State 0Local 0
Organizations1

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2025-08-13
Frank MrvanH0IN01150 ↗
Receipts
$1.9M
Disburse
$873.2K
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Barb RegnitzOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$463.7K
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$1.4M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$53.33
D side
$53.33 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
GIVEGREEN UNITED AC…
For / against split
For Mrvan $53.33
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$53.33100%for Frank Mrvan

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D3
Cook Political Report
Likely D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Likely D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Safe D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 14, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 5, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 3, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2025-08-13
Endorsements24 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks