Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Illinois house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+19) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+29.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.9 (10th pctile) to D+45.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +29.0
80% CI: D +12.9 → D +45.1 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +36.6
80% CI D +7.3 → D +46.1
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the IL-09 House seat?” | 94¢ | 6¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 60 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet60
Endorsements tracked
Daniel Biss60 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total60
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDaniel Biss60 endorsers
Most notable · Robyn Gabel · House Majority Leader (2023–present) from the 18th district (2010–present)
Elected officials31
Federal 10State 9Local 5
Elected officials · 31
- Robyn Gabel · House Majority Leader (2023–present) from the 18th district (2010–present)
- Heather Steans · former state senator from the 7th district (2008–2021)
- Mark Walker · state senator from the 27th district (2024–present)
- Kwame Raoul · attorney general of Illinois (2019–present)
- Chuy García · IL-04 (2019–present)
- Greg Casar · TX-35 (2023–present)
- Jamie Raskin · MD-08 (2017–present)
- Jan Schakowsky · IL-09 (1993–present)
- Maxwell Frost · FL-10 (2023–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · WA-07 (2017–present)
- Sean Casten · IL-06 (2019–present)
- Andre Vasquez · Chicago alder from the 40th ward (2019–present)
- Bill Foster · IL-11 (2008–2011, 2013–present)
- David Orr · former Cook County Clerk (1990–2018)
- Dick Simpson · former Chicago alder from the 44th ward (1971–1979)
- Elizabeth Tisdahl · former mayor of Evanston (2009–2017)
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Julie Hamos · former state representative from the 18th district (1998–2010)
- Kelly Cassidy · state representative from the 14th district (2011–present)
- Lake County Treasurer · y Treasurer (2018–present)
- Maria Pappas · Cook County Treasurer (1998–present)
- Mary Beth Canty · state representative from the 54th district (2023–present)
- Matt Martin · Chicago alder from the 47th ward (2019–present)
- Nicolle Grasse · state representative from the 53rd district (2024–present)
- Sarah McBride · DE-AL (2025–present)
- Sharon Chung · state representative from the 91st district (2023–present)
- Suzanne Ness · state representative from the 66th district (2021–present)
- Tammy Duckworth · Illinois (2017–present)
- Timmy Knudsen · Chicago alder from the 43rd ward (2022–present)
- Tom Tunney · former vice mayor of Chicago (2019–2023) and alder from the 44th ward (2003–2023)
- mayor · Lytle, former mayor of Evanston (1977–1985)
Organizations29
Organizations · 29
- 314 Action
- AFL-CIO · s AFL-CIO
- Carpenters · a Carpenters Regional Council
- Chicago Federation of Labor
- Chicago Teachers Union
- Christopher Street Project
- Citizen Action · Illinois
- Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC
- Giffords
- Illinois Federation of Teachers
- International Association of Fire Fighters · Local 742
- International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers · Local 134
- International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers · District Council 1
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 150
- Iron Workers District Council of Chicago & Vicinity
- J Street
- J Street PAC
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Laborers' · aborers' District Council
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Nurses United
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Painters · Painters District Council 14
- Patriotic Millionaires
- Plumbers · Local 130
- SEIU · Healthcare
- Sierra Club
- UNITE HERE · Local 1
- United Food and Commercial Workers · Local 881
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-09Daniel BissH6IL09228 ↗
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$267.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.2M
D side
$1.2M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
Congressional Progr…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC pac · boosts D
| D | $546.8K | 45% | for Daniel Biss |
| 314 Action Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $409.8K | 34% | for Daniel Biss |
| J Street Action Fund super pac · boosts D
| D | $149.8K | 12% | for Daniel Biss |
| Medicare For All pac · boosts D
| D | $98.0K | 8% | for Daniel Biss |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-09
Endorsements138 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks