Races · house · 2026 · Illinois
house · open seat
Illinois house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+34) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+44.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+28.4 (10th pctile) to D+60.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +44.5
80% CI: D +28.4 → D +60.6 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +63.0
80% CI D +53.2 → D +70.7
CV MAE 8.51
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democratic Party win the IL-07 House seat?” | 94¢ | 3¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 39 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet39
Endorsements tracked
La Shawn Ford39 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total39
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DLa Shawn Ford39 endorsers
Most notable · Kimberly Lightford · Majority Leader of the Illinois Senate (2019–present) from the 4th district (1998–present)
Elected officials36
Federal 4State 24Local 1
Elected officials · 36
- Kimberly Lightford · Majority Leader of the Illinois Senate (2019–present) from the 4th district (1998–present)
- Robyn Gabel · Majority Leader of the Illinois House of Representatives (2023–present) from the 18th district (2010–present)
- Chris Welch · Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives (2021–present) from the 7th district (2013–present)
- Pat Quinn · former Governor of Illinois (2009–2015)
- Mattie Hunter · state senator from the 3rd district (2003–present)
- Jesse White · former Illinois Secretary of State (1999–2023)
- Danny Davis · IL-07 (1997–present)
- Emil Jones · former President of the Illinois Senate (2003–2009) from the 14th district (1983–2009)
- Anna Moeller · state representative from the 43rd district (2014–present)
- Anthony DeLuca · state representative from the 80th district (2009–present)
- Bob Rita · state representative from 28th district (2003–present)
- Bobby Rush · former IL-01 (1993–2023)
- Camille Lilly · state representative from the 78th district (2010–present)
- Carol Ammons · state representative from the 103rd district (2015–present)
- Daniel Didech · state representative from the 59th district (2019–present)
- Debbie Meyers-Martin · state representative from the 38th district (2019–present)
- Derrick Curtis · Chicago alder from the 18th ward (2015–present)
- Diane Blair-Sherlock · state representative from 46th district (2022–present)
- Emma Mitts · Chicago alder from the 37th ward (2000–present)
- Fred Crespo · state representative from the 44th district (2007–present)
- Jawaharial Williams · state representative from the 10th district (2019–present)
- Jay Hoffman · state representative from the 113th district (1991–1997, 1997–2011, 2013–present)
- Jehan Gordon-Booth · former speaker pro tempore of the Illinois House of Representatives (2021–2025) from the 92nd district (2009–present)
- Justin Slaughter · state representative from the 27th district (2017–present)
- Kam Buckner · speaker pro tempore of the Illinois House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 26th district (2019–present)
- Lisa Davis · state representative from the 32nd district (2025–present)
- Maurice West · state representative from the 67th district (2019–present)
- Michael Crawford · state representative from the 31st district (2025–present)
- Michael Kelly · state representative from the 15th district (2021–present)
- Natalie Manley · state representative from the 98th district (2013–present)
- Nicholas Smith · state representative from the 34th district (2018–present)
- Rita Mayfield · state representative from the 60th district (2010–present)
- Roland Burris · Illinois (2009–2010)
- Suzanne Ness · state representative from the 66th district (2021–present)
- Thaddeus Jones · state representative from the 29th district (2011–present) and mayor of Calumet City (2021–present)
- Walter Burnett Jr. · former vice mayor of Chicago (2023–2025) and alder from the 27th ward (1995–2025)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Cook County College Teachers Union · Local 1600
- Fraternal Order of Police · f Police
- J Street PAC
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-04-15La Shawn FordH6IL07354 ↗
Receipts
$653.5K
Disburse
$567.1K
Cash on hand
$86.4K
Debts
$175.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.5M
D side
$10.0K · 0%
R side
$2.5M · 100%
Top spender
Fairshake
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairshake super pac · boosts R
| R | $2.5M | 100% | against La Shawn Ford |
| PEOPLES VOICE FOR PROGRESS other · boosts D
| D | $10.0K | 0% | for La Shawn Ford |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-04-15
Endorsements93 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks